Research Agenda
Working Papers
Does The Global South Import Ideology Shifts?
Previous research shows that regions negatively affected by trade in developed countries tend to shift toward political extremes, but little is known about such effects in developing nations. Costa Rica provides a unique case, as the 2007 CAFTA-DR referendum captured direct public opinion on trade at the canton level. Using canton-level vote share for CAFTA-DR as a proxy for trade support and weighting political party manifesto positions by election results, I construct a canton-level political-lean index. Measuring each canton’s exposure to imports, I find that increased trade exposure shifts political support toward right-leaning parties, though this effect is weaker in cantons with higher initial support for trade. These results highlight that both economic shocks and perceptions of trade influence ideological shifts in developing democracies.
